Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
